By Allen Carlson & Xu Xin
China isn’t looking for conflict in the South China Sea. Indeed, it already seems to be moderating its language over it its spat with the Philippines.
Over the past several weeks,China’s assertive posturing toward the Philippines over the Huangyan Island (Panatag Shoal) section of the South China Sea has generated a great deal of consternation in Asia and beyond. Given the tense situation in the region, it’s quite reasonable to be concerned about how this territorial dispute may lead to a downturn in relations between the two countries.
However, surface appearances notwithstanding, there’s little evidence that Beijing is actively pursuing such an outcome. On the contrary, even in the South China Sea, an area that to many appears particularly ripe for rivalry, there is some cause for optimism.
It’s obvious that Beijing has ratcheted up its campaign to use more blunt measures toward Manila. Yet the intent of such actions isn’t to provoke military conflict, but rather to pressure the Philippines to negotiate with China over the status of the territory in dispute. To be clear, Beijing has shown absolutely no willingness to relinquish it claims in the region. It’s unlikely to ever do so. To think otherwise is both naïve and misinformed.
But at the same time, it has been close to two decades since the last direct, albeit minor, military engagement between China and the Philippines occurred in this maritime area. In addition, during the ensuing period of relative calm, the Chinese signed onto the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which obligates China (and other signatories) to use only peaceful means to resolve their differences. When such developments are juxtaposed with earlier, more assertive, Chinese behaviors, they suggest that the overall trend in Beijing’s approach toward this region points more in the direction of cooperation than conflict.
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