By Francesco Guarascio
No date has been set, but Taiwan's return to Chinese rule is becoming somewhat of a safe bet – with huge implications for global security, reports Francesco Guarascio from Taipei
MaoTse-tung used to say that China could "do without" Taiwan for 100 years, but eventually the leaf-shaped island off the coast of South China would return to the motherland; even if this required the use of force. The recent strategy of Beijing toward the rebellious republic has not wavered, although the issue is now handled with improved subtlety. The threat of military intervention has never receded, but the favoured policy is now to retake the island by stealth rather than force.
China's strength in this endeavour is its impressive growth. When the economic differences between the mainland and Taiwan are gone, the argument to maintain the separate rule will lose ground. This is the same strategy that Beijing applied to Hong Kong, which was returned to China in 1987 by the United Kingdom but is set to enjoy a special status for the first 50 years after the handover. China's main ally in this potentially dangerous embrace is Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jeou, a man strengthened by his re-election for a second four-year mandate. During his first term, he pursued a policy of engagement with China. This produces considerable economic benefits, but risks driving Taiwan into a political cul-de-sac where the only option is to eventually rejoin China.
Read the full story at Public Service Europe