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| Fiery Cross Reef: One of China's Artificial Islands |
Wendell Minnick
TAIPEI, Taiwan — Analysts are divided over how China will react if an international court in The Hague rules in favor of the Philippines, calling into question the legitimacy of China's mad-made islands and claim to the South China Sea.
The July 12 decision by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea could produce a reaction by China's armed forces beyond what it has already accomplished. The Chinese military has established air bases, radar facilities, air defense facilities, port facilities and land reclamation efforts on rocks, islets and shoals in the South China Sea.
Some analysts fear that China will declare an air identification defense zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea, as they did over the East China Sea in November 2013. The abrupt announcement caught Japan and the United States unprepared on how to respond. China’s ADIZ covered the disputed islets of the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyu Islands.
Ching Chang, a naval analyst and research fellow at the Taipei-based Society for Strategic Studies, said that despite propaganda from state-controlled media outlets like China Daily indicating Beijing will take military action, the government itself has never officially threatened to do so.
The People’s Liberation Army has its own tempo and agenda in conducting exercises, construction work and routine patrol missions, Chang said. The arbitration has no bearing on its plans, he said, as the military will not respond to a legal decision. If an ADIZ is declared, it will likely be in reaction to strategic and tactical demands rather than a foreign court's decision. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the sole responder to such a legal decision.
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