By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR.
A UN tribunal ruling could trigger the next round of brinksmanship in the South China Sea as early as next week. But don’t expect the ruling to end the dispute, especially since the Chinese have already vowed to ignore an adverse ruling.
“It’s…not likely to be resolved this year or by one international ruling, no matter how brilliant the arbitrators are,” said Patrick Cronin of the Center for a New American Security. “So it’s going to be a long term (issue) for the next administration.”
The US has taken the rare step of deploying two supercarriers side-by-side in the West Pacific, a dramatic exercise in deterrence. But “if after the arbitration ruling, which may come as soon as next week now, China doesn’t like the result, what if they just ignore the carriers….and say ‘we’re moving our dredgers into the Scarborough Shoal (and) we’re actually going to build our own artificial island here,'” Cronin asked at the CNAS annual conference this afternoon. “What are you going to do about it?”
China is seeking to neutralize US power in two ways. The high-end counter is to build an Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) network. This layered defense of cyber/electronic weapons, long-range sensors, anti-ship missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, strike planes, submarines, and mines aims to keep US forces from meddling in what China considers its backyard. This is the high-end deterrent.
But China’s much more likely to use its low-end force, the maritime equivalent of Vladimir Putin’s deniable Little Green Men: Chinese Coast Guard vessels, dredging ships (as in Cronin’s hypothetical scenario), and fishing boats that can push into disputed territory without raising the risk of a military clash.
Read the full story at Breaking Defense