01 February 2016

Editorial: Taiwan Elections: An Opportunity for Japan?

Tsai Ing-wen (Image: Wiki Commons)
By Chen Yo-Jung

Tsai Ing-wen’s victory was greeted with enthusiasm in Tokyo.

In East Asia, few things happen outside of China’s shadow. The recently concluded presidential election in Taiwan was no exception, although its outcome was far from what Beijing had wanted.

By electing a new president with pro-independence inclinations, Taiwan has sent an unmistakable message to China: While it does need to do business with China, it wants to keep the latter at arm’s length and rejects any direct or indirect attempt at reunification.

“China” as usual is on everyone’s mind in the wake of Tsai Ing-wen’s victory. But in comparison to past major political upheavals in Taiwan, this election appears to be bringing into the geopolitical picture of the Strait of Taiwan a new but potentially significant regional player: Japan.

Mindful of its delicate relations with China, official circles in Japan had, since its diplomatic recognition of Communist China in 1972, painstakingly shied away from publicly showing any interest in the politics of what China considers its own “renegade province.”

But something has changed. Immediately following confirmation of Tsai’s electoral victory, Tokyo shed its customary reserve and reacted with uncharacteristically candid enthusiasm, with both Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida publicly welcoming the victory of the pro-independence candidate, calling Taiwan “a longtime friend and a model of democracy,” and voicing hope for stronger ties with the island under its new leadership.

This unprecedentedly unapologetic enthusiasm in Tokyo for Taiwan’s new “anti-China” regime was not lost on Beijing, which summoned the Japanese ambassador for a briefing on China’s position on Taiwan and for a reminder of the sacrosanct “One China” principle.

Tokyo’s new proactive attitude on the sensitive Taiwan issue can be linked to the changing geopolitical situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea, as well as with Taiwan’s own subtle transformation in its attitude towards China.

On a personal basis, it is worth noting that a discreet but unmistakable exchange of friendship has been going on between the current Japanese prime minister and Taiwan’s new president-elect since at least 2011, before both came to power. In 2011, then Diet member (and former premier) Abe visited Taiwan and privately met with Tsai. Again, on October 2015, barely three months before her current electoral victory, Tsai visited Japan and is rumored to have secretly met with now Prime Minister Abe in Tokyo. She even visited Yamaguchi, Abe’s family and electoral home ground, where she was feted by the Abe family. All of these visits and meetings were wrapped up in top secret to avoid attracting China’s wrath.

Of course, international politics involves more than personal friendship.

Read the full story at The Diplomat