By Carl Thayer
Exploring myths and misconceptions regarding Vietnam’s approach to China and the United States.
The Central Committee of the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) is poised to hold its thirteenth plenary session this month. According to informed insiders, this will be crunch time for selecting candidates for Vietnam’s top leadership posts – party secretary general, state president, prime minister, and chair of the National Assembly.
Once the plenum concludes, preparations for the twelfth national party congress, reportedly scheduled for January 7-9, will go into high gear. There are an unprecedented number of individuals vying for these top posts. Although there is uncertainty as to who will be the next party leader, political insiders predict there will be no major changes in Vietnam’s foreign policy and relations with the major powers.
Two recent reports offer contrasting views of Vietnam’s relations with China and the United States in the coming years. The first report, written by Joshua Kurlantzick for the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, is entitled “A China-Vietnam Military Clash.” This report was summarized in The Diplomat.
The second report was authored by veteran BBC journalist Bill Hayton for the United States Studies Center at the University of Sydney’s Emerging U.S. Security Partnerships in South-East Asia project. It is entitled, “Vietnam and the United States: An Emerging Security Partnership.”
According to Kurlantzick:
The risk of a military confrontation between China and Vietnam is rising… growing sources of friction could lead to a serious military confrontation between the two countries in the next twelve to eighteen months, with potentially serious consequences for the United States.
Hayton, in contrast, notes that although bilateral relations have been frayed by disputes in the South China Sea, leaders in both Vietnam and China have “quarantined” them from their overall relationship. Hayton concludes by noting that in 2015, relations between China and Vietnam were calm, with both sides managing public opinion. In addition “trade continues to boom and tourist arrivals, suspended during the 2014 crisis, are back up.”
Read the full story at The Diplomat