11 December 2015

Editorial: The US, China and an Abundance of Cyber-Caution

By Robert Farley

Is restraint the chief characteristic of conflict in the cyber-age?

Why does China appear to be backing down to U.S. pressure on cyber-espionage? National security and cyber-warfare analysts have reacted with skepticism and surprise to China’s apparent receptivity to recent U.S. criticism over its cyber-espionage practices. Why have seemingly tepid U.S. actions had such an impact?

This may be the wrong question. There’s a way of thinking about this question that rests less on the idea that the United States intimidated China (and consequently wonders why China felt intimidated), and more on the possibility that states are still finding their way in the cyber-realm, that the norms of cyber-conflict remain plastic, and that restraint may carry the day.

While many analysts have predicted that the opening of the cyberspace would lead to national conflict, and government conflict against subnational groups, Brandon Valeriano and Ryan Maness argue in Cyber War versus Cyber Realities that the chief characteristic of conflict in the cyber-age has been restraint. While the development of the cyber commons opens up wide avenues in which states can attack one another, most governments thus far have not pressed their advantages. In part because of uncertainty about their own vulnerability, states restrain themselves from escalating.

Read the full story at The Diplomat