By Prashanth Parameswaran
As both sides resume their strategic dialogue, The Diplomat takes an inside, in-depth look at ongoing efforts to manage Washington’s oldest Asian alliance.
WASHINGTON, DC – On December 16, the United States and Thailand will hold their first strategic dialogue in three years in a boost for an alliance that has been under strain following a coup last May.
While the dialogue does represent a big milestone in the ongoing thaw of U.S.-Thailand relations, in truth this is just the latest in a series of steps the two sides have been taking to manage the relationship in post-coup context.
Context
On 22 May 2014, the Royal Thai Armed Forces led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha ousted an elected civilian government led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra after six months of disruptive political protests and installed a military junta.
Thailand is no stranger to coups: since 1932, the country has experienced nineteen; twelve of them successful, with the last occurring in 2006 and overthrowing Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck’s brother, a divisive figure who was popular at the polls but had drawn the ire of the country’s traditional elite and urban middle class. Civil-military dynamics are also not new to U.S.-Thai relations: the alliance itself was initially forged under Thailand’s virtual military dictator Field Marshal Plaek Phibunsongkhram – popularly known in the West as Phibun.
This time around, however, things are much more uncertain. Though festering concerns about Thailand’s post-Cold War political order – anchored around the monarchy, military and bureaucracy – have threatened to boil over in the past decade, it is now at a critical juncture with the impending royal succession of ailing, revered 87-year old King Bhumipol Adulyadej. Few expect the ruling junta to loosen its grip on power until it can ensure the succession – and the jockeying that is expected to follow it – goes smoothly (See: “Democracy Delayed, Domestic Uncertainty Continues to Haunt Thailand”).
That has created a dilemma for the alliance. From Washington’s perspective, since full resumption of ties can only occur with the restoration of elected government, its oldest ally in Asia is underperforming just as Washington is looking to deepen its engagement in the Asia-Pacific. In the eyes of Bangkok, antagonizing rhetoric and punitive measures from one of its closest friends when it is undergoing a critical transition has been most unwelcome, especially when other partners like China are more than willing to fill the void.
“The result is that the alliance has underperformed and Thailand is stuck in a domestic holding pattern,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor at Chulalongkorn University and one of the country’s leading commentators, told The Diplomat.
Yet in reality, even as these obstacles endure, U.S. and Thai officials have already been moving over the past few months to preserve ongoing cooperation as well as better manage the strained alliance between the two countries.
Read the full story at The Diplomat