By Evan Gottesman
Moscow’s broader international military engagements might worry its Caspian neighbors.
Russia’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War is leaving the former Soviet republics on the Caspian Sea littoral in an uncomfortable place. Caught between their historic relationships with Moscow and concerns for their own security, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan are clearly in an unenviable political position. Moreover, unprecedented Russian military action risks destabilizing otherwise steady diplomatic ties.
A November 4 security agreement concluded by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is one indication that something is amiss in the Caspian Sea. The plan notably provides for joint Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan naval exercises on the inland sea.
Emerging Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan defense cooperation is likely derived, at least in part, from anxiety over Moscow’s use of the Caspian Sea in its Middle East operations. Russia’s Caspian Sea Flotilla fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria in October and November. While Astana has tempered its own statements on Russian military activity in the Caspian, Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov spoke for his northern neighbors during a November 23 meeting with President Vladimir Putin. There, Berdimuhamedov indicated to his Russian counterpart that, “Our Kazakh colleagues are allegedly worried over what is going on over the Caspian Sea, which is linked with military issues.”
While Berdimuhamedov claimed to convey Kazakh fears, Turkmenistan may also be troubled by Russian operations on the Caspian. Turkmenistan maintains a distinctly neutral foreign policy platform. Still, the Turkmen government has lent rhetorical support to Ukraine in Kiev’s conflict with Russia. Turkmenistan expressed its apprehension over Moscow’s 2008 invasion of Georgia by conducting military drills in the Caspian—not unlike Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan’s planned exercises.
Read the full story at The Diplomat