By Shawn W. Crispin
Despite appearances, Myanmar’s historic election will lead to an uneasy balance of power between the NLD and the military.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party is poised to sweep Myanmar’s November 8 general election, a resounding result that if honored will fundamentally shift the country’s politics towards more, though not complete, democracy after over five decades of direct and proxy military rule.
The NLD’s win may also be interpreted as a de facto referendum for stronger ties with the democracy-promoting West, a diplomatic shift initiated by outgoing President Thein Sein’s quasi-civilian government and widely expected to deepen under NLD rule.
Preliminary official results showed that the NLD won nearly 90 percent of the seats it contested, well above the 67 percent it needs to form a majority government. The incumbent military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) garnered less than 10 percent, a thumping defeat that signaled a popular desire to dispatch the military and its proxies out of politics. That wish, however, will be only partially granted due to constitutional provisions that reserve 25 percent of parliament’s seats and grant control over the home, defense and border security ministries to the military.
Suu Kyi has stated her intention to rule “above the president”, sidestepping a constitutional provision that bars anyone with foreign children from assuming the presidency. A bid to amend that provision was blocked earlier this year by the military’s parliamentary bloc, a unified front that will have the numbers and spirit to thwart any future attempts by the NLD to change the charter. If Suu Kyi indeed governs from above a token president, analysts already anticipate a military challenge to her role, citing constitutional Article 58 of the charter which states the presidency “takes precedence over all other persons” in the country.
Read the full story at The Diplomat