By Gregory Poling
What comes next in the Philippines’ South China Sea arbitration case?
The five-member tribunal hearing Manila’s case against Beijing’s South China Sea claims at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague held a hearing on preliminary jurisdiction and admissibility of claims from July 7 to 13. As expected, China did not participate or attend the hearings, which were closed to the public but observed by delegations from Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The tribunal’s decision to consider jurisdictional questions separate from the merits will likely delay a final ruling, though fears that it will push a decision back a year or more are likely overblown.
The court gave the Philippine legal team until July 23 to submit detailed written responses to the issues raised during the hearing on preliminary jurisdiction. Many of these are the same concerns that Beijing raised in its position paper published last December, which the court said it would consider as a submission in the case regardless of China’s insistence otherwise. The judges also gave China until August 17 to file any comments it might have on arguments made during the jurisdiction hearing.
In a July 13 statement, the tribunal said it would issue a ruling on preliminary jurisdiction “as soon as possible and expects to do so before the end of the year.” Paul Reichler, who heads up the Philippines’ legal team, was more specific, saying he expects a decision within 90 days. Given his considerable experience, it is safe to assume Reichler’s timeline is accurate, which means the court will likely rule on jurisdiction by late October. Beyond that point, the timeline for the case becomes a matter of debate.
Read the full story at The Diplomat