By Richard Javad Heydarian
Expecting a radical shift under a new president is misguided.
For the past two years, several governments, corporations, and academics from across the Asia-Pacific region have repeatedly asked me about a single issue: Whether the departure of President Benigno Aquino could usher in a new type of bilateral relationship with China. In the coming months, the Philippines will enter the election season, and as candidates from varying political persuasions jostle for the top office, such speculative question will gain more currency.
Some people have even suggested that the Aquino administration should be primarily blamed for the sorry state of bilateral relations with Beijing, notwithstanding the strategic implications of China’s aggressive pursuit of its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Even in the Philippines, where majority (57% in one survey) of the population holds favorable views towards the incumbent leader, some sensationalist columnists have gone so far as outrageously claiming that Aquino is to be entirely blamed for China’s massive reclamation activities and growing assertiveness across the Western Pacific.
I won’t be surprised if the leadership in Beijing is simply waiting for a new government in Manila before exploring the possibility for more substantive dialogue. Indeed, one can sense that China is waiting for someone it thinks it can deal with, and they have simply concluded that Aquino is not that person.
However, a more careful look at the Philippines’ domestic politics shows how the succeeding administration will have limited room for maneuver vis-à-vis China unless the more powerful party makes some genuine compromises (a farfetched prospect). To be seen as tough on China is simply good domestic politics, especially for populist Filipino leaders. And to do the opposite would surely risk massive political backlash.
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