By Van Jackson
A look at what Pyongyang is seeking and why.
North Korea’s rhetoric suggests it’s willing and able to launch nuclear first-strikes on South Korea, Japan, and even the United States. Such rhetoric promotes fear among those who believe that any strikes or retaliation against Pyongyang could lead to a nuclear conflict. But such a North Korean nuclear posture, described as “asymmetric escalation,” is simply not credible during peacetime. Instead, North Korea is on a trajectory to establish a secure second-strike nuclear posture that all but guarantees regime survival and freedom to coerce South Korea from a position of safety.
The prevailing wisdom about North Korean nuclear strategy does not draw a distinction between peace and war. Yet there are reasons to expect that its nuclear strategy would be different under these very different circumstances.
As I discussed last week, it’s highly likely that in the midst of a conflict, North Korea will adopt an asymmetric escalation posture. Not only does North Korea lack the resources to wage a protracted conflict, but there’s a serious possibility that U.S. and South Korean military actions in a conflict — targeting air defenses, amphibious assaults, building up military forces — will inadvertently signal to North Korea that regime change is coming. Whether that’s what the alliance intends to do or not, sending such a signal to North Korea incentivizes them to launch nuclear strikes out of desperation.
Read the full story at The Diplomat