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| Image: Flickr User - Greg Bishop |
By Joseph A. Bosco
Backing away now will be seen in Beijing and elsewhere as a further erosion of U.S. credibility.
No sane Chinese or American official wants a major war between the two countries. Nor would anyone in a responsible position on the U.S. side welcome even a limited military conflict with China, for fear of miscalculation, escalation, and unintended consequences, including the significant endangerment of economic relations. American restraint is demonstrable in the South China Sea (SCS) but it has also characterized the U.S. response to China-initiated situations in the East China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait.
That prudent approach, however, is not sufficiently shared by Chinese government and military leaders. Some seem willing to push the envelope to see just how much aggressive behavior Washington will tolerate in the region. They appear prepared to risk a direct clash at sea or in the air and expect the U.S. to make the necessary efforts to avoid it – for instance, to back away from exercising full navigational and overflight rights.
Beijing’s belief in its new military prowess and in America’s failing will and capabilities emboldens Chinese leaders to persist in their defiance even if planes or ships collide, and potentially, if shots are actually fired. Chinese officials are convinced that Washington fears escalation more than they do and that it will accept a compromise resolution rather than take U.S. resistance to the next level.
But if Washington’s present grasping for an SCS off-ramp leaves China in even a marginally better position than the status quo ante, it will be seen – not just in Beijing – as vindication of its more aggressive actions and evidence of faltering U.S. resolve. America, and countries that depend on its security guarantees, will have been taught a lesson. To pursue its regional and global ambitions, China will no longer feel compelled to heed Deng Xiaoping’s caution to “bide our time, hide our capabilities.”
Read the full story at The Diplomat