By Rohan Joshi
Countries around India are undergoing significant political transformations. Will New Delhi be a beacon of regional stability?
India’s neighborhood is in the midst of significant change. In Sri Lanka, an unlikely coalition with former Minister of Health Maithripala Sirisena defeated Mahinda Rajapaksa in the country’s presidential election in January. In the Maldives, former president Mohamed Nasheed, having been systematically harassed since a de facto coup in 2012, has been sentenced to 13 years in prison and found guilty of terrorism. Afghanistan’s future looks precarious as a unity government led by President Ashraf Ghani attempts to make peace with the Afghan Taliban.
Islamist forces in Bangladesh continue to challenge the secular fabric of the state, resulting in upswing in attacks against Hindu and Buddhist minorities. Those who champion the cause of freedom and tolerance are being silenced, the heinous murder of blogger Avijit Roy earlier this month being but the most recent example.
These transformative events coincide with India having witnessed a gradual but definite attrition of its influence in the region over the last several years. In Sri Lanka, as in the Maldives, years of neglect left a vacuum that was readily filled by China. In Afghanistan, the dithering of past governments resulted in India failing to capitalize on opportunities to further strengthen security cooperation between the two countries, and in the process, bolster Afghanistan’s conventional military and counter-insurgency capabilities. A historic opportunity to move past contentious land and water-sharing issues with Bangladesh was left unrealized as a result of domestic political wrangling with the West Bengal government.
However, there are encouraging signs that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), elected to power last May, understands these challenges and intends to address them. In a significant first step, the NDA demonstrated that it took India’s neighborhood seriously by inviting the leaders of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives and Mauritius to attend the inauguration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May 2014.
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