By Franz-Stefan Gady
Are the stories surrounding China’s Indian Ocean fleet just wishful thinking?
Today, Defense News ran a very interesting piece attacking the often repeated assertion that China will soon be adding one additional fleet to the three existing ones (the North Sea, East Sea, and South Sea Fleets) it currently operates. This new fleet will allegedly be headquartered in Sanya on Hainan Island and project Chinese naval power into the Indian Ocean. One expert noted (PDF) in 2014: “There have been reports that China is already creating a fourth fleet that would eventually consist of two Carrier Battle Groups based at Hainan Island. This fleet might be placed directly under the Central Military Commission, the highest military decision-making body, making it a powerful instrument of geopolitical signaling.”
Yet, Defense News quotes a Ching Chang, former Taiwan naval officer who now is a fellow at Taiwan’s ROC Society for Strategic Studies, in saying that such reports are “overstated speculation” and not credible. “Without any diplomatically credible, militarily reliable, and logistically functional forward base in the Indian Ocean area, it is impossible for the [Chinese Navy] to establish any long-lasting military organization there, though certain ad hoc arrangements such as dispatch forces, task forces and exercise maneuvering units may appear in the Indian Ocean from time to time,” Chang emphasizes.
Read the full story at The Diplomat