By Clint Richards
A December election would be an Abenomics referendum, and an open door to a stronger military.
According to inside sources who have spoken with at least two Japanese newspapers, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is by all accounts (except his own, at least publicly) going to dissolve the lower house of the Japanese Diet shortly after he returns from his tour abroad on the 17th; the same day third quarter growth figures will be released. An aide close to Abe has said any election “would be a referendum on Abenomics,” and indeed, annualized GDP figures for the third quarter are not likely to be strong enough for Abe to justify next October’s consumption tax increase to 10 percent without first gaining national approval. However, there are other issues on next year’s political docket that would likely be smoothed over by a snap election (and assumed LDP victory) that otherwise might cause the Abe administration further problems, and perhaps derail large policy objectives.
According to the Jiji Press, “informed sources” told the publication on Wednesday that Abe sent a message to a senior ruling party official to prepare for a House of Representatives election, while he was attending the APEC Summit in Beijing. TheYomiuri Shimbun reported on Wednesday that “sources close to the government” say Abe could on Monday meet with the LDP’s coalition partner Komeito’s leader Natsuo Yamaguchi to discuss the decision, and “instructed senior members of the Liberal Democratic Party to speed up preparations for a possible general election.”
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