By Robert Dujarric
Why the United States should close the credibility gap in a tense region.
Recently, I had lunch with a keen analyst of Asian affairs who feared for American credibility in Northeast Asia. I argued it was likely, though not certain, that a PLA attack on Taiwan would push the U.S. to respond with force. In the case of Japan, it’s nearly impossible to think a Chinese assault, even one limited to remote islands, would not lead to a Sino-American war if Japan required U.S. assistance (Jun Okumura and Paul Sraric debated the contention in The Diplomat recently).
To quote the Thucydidian “trinity,” three factors underpin U.S. engagement in Northeast Asia: self-interest, honor and fear. Regarding self-interest, Northeast Asia, along with Europe and North America, is one of the centers of wealth and power on this planet. The U.S. wants them to be open to U.S. political and economic influence.
The 21st century counterpart of Hellenic honor is the mindset that defines U.S. policymaking since at least 1941: America must be preeminent. Venezuela aligning with Cuba and China is not incompatible with American honor, but losing Japan is. Additionally, democratic ideology and Christianity are potent forces in America, potentially adding a quasi-religious dimension to the survival of freedom against the godless communist tyrants of Beijing.
Finally, there is the fear that Chinese hegemony in the region would endanger “core” American interests and the U.S. itself. Chinese inroads in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and other continents add to this feeling that the PRC is a danger to America.
Concerns about U.S. credibility are unavoidable. Those who depend on others always harbor doubts about their protectors. Recent events are fueling this round of anxiety: the invasion of Ukraine, the so-far feckless Operation Inherent Resolve (the Orwellian moniker for campaign against the Islamic State), and cuts in U.S. defense spending.
Read the full story at The Diplomat