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By Paul J. Leaf
Understanding the motives behind Beijing’s provocation will help the US and its partners deal with future incidents.
On May 2, China unilaterally placed an oil-drilling rig in waters 120 miles from Vietnam’s coast – near islands claimed by both countries and well within Hanoi’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone set by international law. From the outset, approximately thirty Vietnamese vessels tried to intervene, but were repelled by the eighty plus Chinese ships protecting the rig. Although the platform was scheduled to maintain its position until August 15, China withdrew it on July 16.
China’s overreach was costly, among other things it accelerated a developing arms race in Asia and amplified calls for Washington and Tokyo to counter Beijing. Still, China acquired useful information to hone its ongoing strategy in the South China Sea. Understanding why Beijing took this action and its attendant lessons will help Washington and its partners deal with China.
Beijing seeks primacy in Asia, so it must displace Washington. Because China is too weak to directly confront the U.S., it tries to gradually chip away at the regional status quo through low-level provocations against its neighbors. Individually, these actions do not justify China’s weaker targets waging war against it or serious U.S. intervention; added together, they may eventually tilt Asia’s balance in China’s favor. By repeatedly confronting its regional competitors, Beijing showcases its military superiority and forces Washington to make a difficult choice: (1) Assist those countries whenever China tries a provocation, which cedes control to China and risks escalation with a nuclear-power and important trade partner; or (2) Remain uninvolved, which legitimizes China’s claims to disputed areas as it fortifies its presence therein and diminishes its rivals’ desire to ally with the U.S. by undermining U.S. security guarantees. But if Beijing pushes too hard, it risks drawing in Washington and creating a balancing bloc. China therefore calibrates aggression and restraint to try to apply the maximum level of force consistent with this approach.
Read the full story at The Diplomat