By David Brenner
Who is the ultimate target of the ongoing armed ethnic conflict?
Myanmar’s army – the Tatmadaw – has a successful track-record of employing divide-and-rule tactics to counter ethnic armed insurgency in the country’s restive borderlands. Preventing the formation of a united front of ethnic armed groups has long been of major importance to the country’s military. The Burmese Communist Party (BCP), a former umbrella group that encompassed various ethnic armies, has proven how dangerous unity among the country’s numerous ethnic rebel movements can be. Since the BCP’s breakup in the late 1980s, the Tatmadaw has done everything it can to single out individual armed groups. While it struck ceasefire deals with some, it concentrated its firepower on others.
These ceasefire accords have mostly been accompanied by lucrative business concessions, which had another divide-and-rule effect. It sparked factionalizing within armed ethnic groups, with some leaders getting rich and corrupt while others held on to their revolutionary principles. It also created an ever widening divide between rebel organizations and local ethnic minority communities. While rebels turned into businessmen, exploiting their territories’ natural resources in collaboration with the Tatmadaw and foreign companies, little wealth trickled down to the ordinary populace. These internal splits often created turmoil within ethnic armed groups and significantly weakened their military strength.
While divide-and-rule tactics have worked to curtail insurgency, it has been argued elsewhere that they might actually be detrimental to the country’s peace process. This is because divided interests among armed groups have repeatedly complicated the finding of a common stance towards negotiating with the government, as was evidenced by the latest marathon armed ethnic conference in Karen State. This stands in the way of a nationwide ceasefire accord, on which peace negotiations need to build upon. Moreover, agreements that might eventually be reached at the negotiation table between Naypyidaw and ethnic insurgency movements need be implemented afterwards. If armed group leaders do not enjoy the full support of their movements, this will be impossible.
Read the full story at The Diplomat