By Shannon Tiezzi
China’s North Korea strategy is pinned on preventing Korean unification. But would that really be so bad for China?
North Korea has found its way into the news again recently, thanks in large part to basketball player Dennis Rodman’s controversial trip to the closed-off state. There have also been more traditional attention-grabbers related to the North Korean nuclear program. In mid-December, South Korean media reported the possibility of another North Korean nuclear or missile test. In his New Year message, leader Kim Jong-Un repeated the traditional threats against the United States and warned of a “massive nuclear disaster” should war break out on the peninsula.
Whenever North Korea appears in the media, China usually gets dragged into the stories as well. China is often blamed for enabling or propping up the North Korean regime, despite its belligerence and nuclear threats. A recent New York Times editorial by Brookings Institution expert Jonathan Pollack asked, “Why does China coddle North Korea?” Pollack noted, ironically, that “China’s policy record on Pyongyang over three decades remains unblemished by success.” He argued that it is time for a change.
China’s policy towards North Korea is predicated almost entirely on one simple goal: keeping the state functioning as a viable “buffer zone.” The mainstream line of thinking is that China must support North Korea enough to prop up the Kim regime. Should the regime fall, the resulting instability in North Korea might lead to unification on South Korea’s terms — which would in effect mean a U.S. military ally now borders China. This would be anathema for China.
However, this traditional line of thinking might actually be short-sighted. Below, I argue that in the (extremely hypothetical) case of Korean unification, China could actually be the long-term winner.
Read the full story at The Diplomat