By Zachary Keck
It is extremely unlikely that China will invade Taiwan, much less succeed.
Although relatively muted in recent years, Taiwan is seen the greatest potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Indeed, U.S. defense analysts perceive China’s expanding Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities primarily through the lens of preventing the U.S. from intervening should Beijing invade Taiwan. Consequently, the main concepts the U.S. military has developed for countering A2/AD — namely, Air-Sea Battle and a blockade approach — appear to be based on the assumption that a shooting war with China would break out over Taiwan.
In many ways, the concern over Taiwan is well-placed. China covets the island far more than any other piece of real estate, including the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. For CCP leaders and many ordinary Chinese, Taiwan is one of the vast remaining vestiges of the country’s century of humiliation. Acquiring Taiwan would also significantly enhance the PLA’s ability to project power outwardly. Despite improvements in cross-Strait relations in recent years, China has refused to rule out the possibility that it invade Taiwan.
Besides having the motivation to acquire Taiwan, China seemingly is rapidly acquiring the capability to take the island by force. In recent years, the cross-Strait military balance has rapidly shifted in Beijing’s favor, and this trend is almost certain to continue so long as China’s economy continues to grow. Today, China has at least 1,600 ballistic missiles pointed at Taiwan, and Taiwan’s own Ministry of Defense admits that China will have sufficient military capabilities to mount a full cross-Strait attack by 2020.
Read the full story at The Diplomat
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