By James R. Holmes
The Naval Diplomat spent part of the recent family holiday, adult beverage(s) in hand, updating the status of the territorial controversies in the South China Sea. Check it out over at China-US Focus.
My overall take: Beijing has grown impatient to settle matters on its terms, to the extent of junking the leisurely, relatively low-key "small-stick" approach that held such promise.
The leadership now appears ready to accept the diplomatic blowback that may come from deploying fighting ships alongside the unarmed maritime-surveillance vessels that execute small-stick diplomacy. The Philippine press reports, for instance, that a PLA Navy frigate has joined the bevy of law-enforcement ships at Scarborough Shoal. This hybrid force has enclosed the atoll in a "cabbage" of steel hulls, denying Philippine mariners entry.
So much for China's accomplishing its goals without looking like a regional bully. But this wouldn't be the first time Beijing has aborted a fruitful diplomatic initiative for reasons that remain a mystery. Remember Beijing's charm offensive toward its Asian neighbors? Me neither. Toshi Yoshihara and I wrote about it. Joshua Kurlantzick published an entire book about it.
By putting the faces of great figures from the past — in particular those of Confucius and Admiral Zheng He — on its rise to great power, Beijing hoped to portray itself as a trustworthy, beneficent steward of maritime security in Asia. It drew a stark contrast between China's maritime past and the Western legacy of seaborne conquest. This soft-power campaign may have worked, given time.
Read the full story at The Diplomat