By Robert Farley
Few wars happen by accident. Given the situation on the Korean Peninsula, a war seems unlikely, as none of the combatants stand to benefit.
Accidental wars rarely happen. Historians have demonstrated that most wars initially deemed “accidental,” (perhaps most notably the First World War), have in actuality resulted from deliberative state policy, even if the circumstances of the war were unplanned. While war seems discordant, it actually requires a great deal of cooperation and coordination. Fundamentally, two parties have to agree to conduct a war; otherwise, you have either a punitive raid or an armed surrender negotiation.
Consequently, the baseline for evaluating the chances for accidental war on the Korean Peninsula should be judged as quite low. South Korea, in all likelihood, views the prospect ofdecisive victory against North Korea as worsethan the status quo. The United States has no interest in fighting a war against the DPRK at the moment. For example, the sinking of the Cheonan was obviously an act of war, but neither the United States nor South Korea were interested in fighting a war on the terms offered. While we know less about the strategic calculus of North Korea, there is little reason to think that North Korea was interested in war, either; it probed South Korean capabilities and resolve, but did not press the issue in ways that could have forced Seoul’s hand.
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