By Robert Farley
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union had a strong political incentive to maximize diffusion of its military capabilities. Proxies with Soviet technology could fight the United States and its proxies on their own. Consequently, states from North Korea to Vietnam to Cuba to Syria, Iraq, and Egypt gained access to the many of the most advanced Soviet fighter, submarine, and missile systems. Often, these systems overwhelmed the capacity of recipients, with buyers lacking the ability to put pilots in planes, sailors in subs, and mechanics in either. Nevertheless, these systems still forced the United States to act cautiously; the combination of a couple Nanuchka class missile boats, some Foxtrot subs, a few MiG-23s and a reasonably sophisticated air defense system could give the US Navy or Air Force a bad day.
Russia doesn’t see much of an upside in this kind of diffusion today. States get the equipment they can pay for, without political subsidy . China has displayed little interest in developing proxy relationships of the type seen in the Cold War. Moreover, few states have an interest in devoting resources and attention to making life difficult for a superpower. Still, given the rapidly advancing capabilities of China’s anti-access forces, questions of diffusion and proliferation bear consideration.
The Chinese anti-access system is built around three pillars. Submarines, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles launched from air, surface, and land platforms each threaten to push American carriers away from China’s littoral. What are the prospects for diffusion of each of these types? Broadly speaking, theories of military diffusion suggest that diffusion can happen when states have the organizational capacity, the human capital, the material resources, and good political reasons (whether founded in symbolic or concrete security concerns) to acquire specific weapons. New weapons require a reason, experts for operation, and an organizational capable of bringing resources and people together in the right place.
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