By James R. Holmes
Commentators have made much of China’s DF-21D (dubbed by many as the "carrier-killer") anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), which reportedly entered limited service with the People’s Liberation Army’s Second Artillery Corps, or missile force, in late 2010. Their assumption, doubtless correct, is that the U.S. Pacific Fleet represents the ASBM’s primary target. But just as U.S. commanders plan for the hardest case—or against the most capable prospective foe—and trust that the resulting capabilities can handle “lesser included” challenges, PLA commanders can use the ASBM not just for anti-access scenarios involving the U.S. Navy but to pummel less formidable fleets. This is Beijing’s unseen big stick.
And a long arm brandishes it. Just look at the map of Asia contained in the Pentagon’s annual reports on Chinese military power. Rivals like Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and most of India all fall within the ASBM’s reach according to American estimates. (Scroll down to page 42.) That lets PLA gunners strike throughout the China seas, well into the Western Pacific, throughout the Bay of Bengal, and into the Arabian Sea—all without deploying launchers outside China’s frontiers. And if ships at sea are at risk, they’re even more exposed while sitting stationary alongside a pier or at anchor.
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