By William C. Martel
Recent events – like those in Syria – show increasing coordination among some of the world’s most dangerous states.
(For more background, please see: An Authoritarian Axis Rising?)
Once subtle in the making, we are watching the unfolding of a dramatic shift in international politics.
Why, we may ask, is this happening?
When the Soviet Union collapsed, no major power emerged to challenge the United States and the West. Simply put, for two decades policymakers failed to define a grand strategy to govern its foreign policy. Washington, in effect, enjoyed a “free ride” in conducting its foreign policy.
In moving from crisis to crisis without an overarching set of goals or principles to guide its policies, the U.S. and the West have lost strategic momentum. Simultaneously, a new bloc of states – an “authoritarian axis” – is gaining strategic momentum. Dangerously, this rival bloc is mounting serious geopolitical resistance to the West and altering the balance of power.
Recent matters only make this new alignment of states all the more clear. Recently, Russia and China vetoed a third UN Security Council Resolution to impose sanctions on Syria for attacks that have killed thousands of people. Due to axis coordination, Russia and China consented to another watered down UN resolution. A recent suicide attack on innocent civilians in Bulgaria, which U.S. official’s claim “had the characteristics of an attack by Hezbollah,” only points to Iranian involvement.
This rising concert – Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela, among other states–shows increasing evidence that their foreign policies are aligned, which is not to say perfect or near-perfect alignment.
Now, more than ever, the West must ask itself two simple questions: Has the axis put into practice a coherent, if still evolving, grand strategy, and will this create an effective counterweight to the U.S. and the West?
The answer is a resounding “yes.”
For the West to understand the gravity of this shift, we must consider what principles animate the axis grand strategy, its strengths and weaknesses, how effective it is, and can the West counteract it?
To be clear: the rise of the axis is the most momentous development – if not the fundamental shift — in geopolitics in recent history. How well the West deals with the axis grand strategy will determine the tenor of world politics — whether peaceful or confrontational – for the next generation.
Read the full story at The Diplomat