 |
| Image: Flickr User - U.S. Pacific Fleet |
SOUTH CHINA SEA (July 18, 2015) Adm. Scott Swift, left, commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet, looks on as Cmdr. John Weidner, commanding officer of Patrol Squadron (VP) 45, and Lt. David Cloward, demonstrate capabilities of the P-8A Poseidon aircraft during a seven-hour maritime surveillance mission. Swift took part to witness firsthand the full range of the Poseidon's capabilities. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Tyler R. Fraser/Released) >>
By Van Jackson
A recent move by the U.S. Pacific Command is a good example of what Washington should do.
What separates the aggressive move from the modest one? Or the unnecessarily risky move from the prudent one? Context. Last week, the recently appointed commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral Scott Swift, joined a routine surveillance mission in the South China Sea conducted by a U.S. P-8 aircraft. Four-star admirals don’t routinely join such frontline missions, of course, which may lead some to view the move as confrontational and risky. To the Chinese, it was “irresponsible and dangerous.”
But this was a single well-played move in an iterative and indirect competition with high stakes. The Chinese are understandably upset because it shifts the terms of the next move in their disfavor, creating a circumstance that requires them to adapt expectations. Moves like the one taken last week, putting a high-level U.S. commander in harm’s way but in a highly anodyne way, help (temporarily at least) stack the deck in favor of the United States and the status quo.
Why? Because it was a signal of U.S. resolve without deterrence. America’s interest in the South China Sea is stability—not ownership—and the most assured path to continued stability will depend on precisely the balance Swift managed with that P-8 mission: establishing new precedents that favor the status quo while avoiding circumstances of immediate deterrence. In effect, the United States must shape the context in which future possible confrontations take place.
Read the full story at The Diplomat