By Darshana M. Baruah
To provide security in the Indian Ocean, we need multilateral cooperation from India, Japan, the U.S., and Australia.
This piece is a follow-up to a previous article by the same author on the geo-strategic competition for the Indian Ocean.
By having bypassed almost all conflict resolution mechanisms in the South China Sea and essentially refusing to participate in any multilateral negotiations, China has managed to attain a status quo in its favor. Conflict resolution in the East and South China Seas appear to be heading toward a deadlock, with China refusing all kinds of international mediation and countries like Vietnam and the Philippines opposing bilateral mechanisms. The Code of Conduct initiated in 2002 remains in limbo, with apparent divisions within the ASEAN grouping. Unless an armed conflict breaks out between the key actors in the region, the situation in the SCS is likely to remain the same — that is, increasing tension without any direct military threat.
Coalition of major powers in the region in the security sphere seems like the only viable option to deter an aggressive China. Collective security and shared responsibility has to be the basis of the emerging security architecture in the region. The balance balance of power is critical in such a model: to balance a rising and increasingly powerful China, there must be a group of equally strong actors to check its actions. While one may argue that ASEAN as a grouping already exists in the region, it is important to note that this group is limited to Southeast Asia – and China is still much more powerful than the members of ASEAN.
However, a coalition primarily between India, Australia, Japan, and the U.S. to maintain peace and stability in the region will be a much more effective mechanism to diffuse maritime tensions in the region. As U.S. Chief of Navy Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert put it, “Multilateral works best… It’s an amazing deterrent. If somebody figures they are going to take on one of you, there is some likelihood they may be taking on all four of you. That tends to hold folks back.”
Read the full story at The Diplomat